ប្រទេស៤ នឹងក្លាយទៅជាសឹង្ហបុរីទី២ នៅពេលខាងមុខ

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លោក Reid Kirchenbauer ជានាយកស្ថាបនិកវេបសាយ InvestAsian ដែលមានជំនាញខាងសេដ្ឋ កិច្ច និងការទិញលក់អចលនទ្រព្យបានធ្វើការវិភាគអំពីការវិវត្តខាងសេដ្ឋកិច្ចសង្គម និងនយោបាយ ហើយ បានធ្វើការប៉ាន់ប្រមាណថា នៅពេលខាងមុខនេះមានប្រទេសចំនួន៤ នឹងក្លាយទៅជាប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីទី២ ដែលក្នុងនោះក៏មានព្រះរាជាណាចក្រកម្ពុជាយើងផងដែរ

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លោក Reid Kirchenbauer បានសរសេរថា ជារឿយៗសេដ្ឋកិច្ចនៃប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីត្រូវបានគេលើក យកធ្វើជាឧទាហរណ៍នៃគោលនយោបាយប្រកបដោយភាពអនុគ្រោះសម្រាប់វិនិយោគិន ហើយដែលបានធ្វើ ឲ្យកំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចនៃប្រទេសមួយនេះហក់ឈានឡើងខ្ពស់យ៉ាងឆាប់រហ័ស ។ យើងទាំងអស់គ្នាសុទ្ធតែបាន ដឹងហើយអំពីប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរី ដែលមានភាពក្រីក្របានផ្លាស់ប្តូរទៅជាប្រទេសមួយដែលមានបំផុតនៅលើភព ផែនដីយើងនេះ ។

ការអភិវឌ្ឍដ៏លឿនគួរឲ្យភ្ញាក់ផ្អើលរបស់សឹង្ហបុរីក្នុងប៉ុន្មានទសវត្សរ៍កន្លងទៅនេះបានធ្វើឲ្យ អ្នកវិនិយោគទាំងឡាយស្វះស្វែងរក «សឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់» ទៀត ។ ហេតុអ្វីក៏គេមិនបន្តធ្វើការវិនិយោគនៅក្នុង ប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីដដែលនេះ? ជាការពិតណាស់ឱកាសដែលបានមកដល់ហើយនោះវាក៏បានកន្លងហួសទៅ ។ គេលំបាកនឹងធ្វើការវិនិយោគនៅក្នុងប្រទេសមួយ ដែលមានការរីកចម្រើនដល់ដំបូលទៅហើយនោះណាស់ ។ ឥឡូវប្រទេសនេះមានលុយគ្រប់គ្រាន់ហើយ ហើយគេក៏មិនសូវត្រូវការលុយអ្នកទៀតទេ ។ ការលើកទឹកចិត្ត និងជម្រើសនានាសម្រាប់អ្នកវិនិយោគទាំងឡាយមានតិចតួចណាស់ បើទោះបីជាអ្នកនាំយកលុយរាប់លាន ដុល្លារទៅកាន់ទីនោះក៏ដោយ ។

ជាមួយគ្នានេះយើងក៏ត្រូវចោទសួរថា ហេតុអ្វីក៏ចាំបាច់ធ្វើការវិនិយោគនៅក្នុង ប្រទេសមួយដែលបានឆ្លងកាត់ដំណាក់កាលអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ដ៏ធំធេង ហើយដែលវាមិនដូចកាលពី២០ឆ្នាំមុននោះ? គ្រប់ៗគ្នាបានឃើញបញ្ហាទាំងអស់នេះ ហើយយើងកំពុងសម្លឹងទៅរកប្រទេសណាផ្សេងទៀត ដែលនឹងត្រូវ ក្លាយទៅជាសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់ ។

ទីក្រុងហុងកុង និងប្រទេសអារ៉ាប់រួមអេមីរ៉ាតមិនត្រូវបានយកមកពិភាក្សានៅក្នុង អត្ថបទនេះទេ ពីព្រោះពួកគេបានទទួលជោគជ័យដូចជាសឹង្ហបុរីរួចទៅហើយ ។

មុនពេលសម្លឹងទៅរកប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់យើងត្រូវពិនិត្យមើលនូវលក្ខណៈសម្បត្តិ និងលក្ខខណ្ឌមួយ ចំនួនដែលធ្វើឲ្យប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីទទួលបានជោគជ័យធំធេងបែបនេះ ។ មានកត្តាសំខាន់ៗជាច្រើនដែលធ្វើឲ្យ មានប្រព័ន្ធរដ្ឋាភិបាលប្រកបដោយប្រសិទ្ធភាព ។ វាមិនចាំបាច់ទេនូវតម្រូវការខាងសេរីភាព (សឹង្ហបុរីជាប្រទេស ដែលស្ថិតនៅក្នុងលំដាប់ទាបខាងសេរីភាពនៃសារព័ត៌មាន) ប៉ុន្តែត្រូវផ្តោតការយកចិត្តទុកដាក់ទៅលើកំណើន សេដ្ឋកិច្ច និងសុខមាលភាពប្រជាជន ។ សឹង្ហបុរីមិនមែនជាប្រទេសដែលប្រកាន់យករបបប្រជាធិបតេយ្យពេញ លេញនោះទេ ។

មានអ្នកខ្លះបានលើកជាយោបល់ថា ប្រទេសមួយនេះដែលមិនមានការប្រកួតប្រជែងខ្លាំង រវាងគណបក្សនយោបាយបានធ្វើឲ្យរដ្ឋាភិបាលរបស់ខ្លួនងាយបត់បែន និងប្រកបដោយប្រសិទ្ធភាព ។ ហេតុ នេះហើយសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់ត្រូវតែស្វាហាប់ និងមានតម្លាភាព ឯបញ្ហាប្រជាធិបតេយ្យដូចជាមិនចាំបាច់ទេ ។ ឯបញ្ហា ប្រឈមខ្លះទៀត គឺត្រូវពិនិត្យទៅលើទីតាំងជាយុទ្ធសាស្ត្ររបស់ប្រទេសនោះ ។ ប្រទេសមួយមិនអាចផ្លាស់ប្តូរ ទីតាំងរបស់ខ្លួននៅលើផែនដីនេះបានទេដូចជា ប្រទេសឡាវ និងម៉ុងហ្គោលី ដោយសារគ្មានភូមិសាស្ត្រជាប់ សមុទ្រទើបធ្វើឲ្យជួបការលំបាក ។

ប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីមានទីតាំងជាប់ច្រកសមុទ្រម៉ាឡាកាជាផ្លូវនាវាដ៏មានសារៈសំខាន់ ។ ជាក់ស្តែងនាវា ដឹកប្រេងរបស់ចិនប្រមាណ ៨០% ត្រូវធ្វើដំណើរតាមច្រកនេះចេញមកពីមជ្ឈឹមបូព៌ា ។ អាស្រ័យដោយភូមិ សាស្ត្របែបនេះធ្វើឲ្យកំពង់ផែប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីក្លាយទៅជាកំពង់ផែដ៏មមាញឹកជាងគេលំដាប់ទី២ ក្នុងពិភពលោក ។ ប្រទេសសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់ក៏ត្រូវតែមានគោលនយោបាយបើកចំហរ និងទាក់ទាញវិនិយោគិនបរទេសហើយប្រទេស មួយមិនអាចរីកចម្រើនលូតលាស់ជាមួយគោលនយោបាយគាំពារនិយមបានទេ ។

ប្រទេស៤ ដែលនឹងក្លាយទៅជាសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់គឺ៖
១- ម៉ាឡេស៊ីៈ ម៉ាឡេស៊ីជាប្រទេសក្បែរខាងជាប់នឹងសឹង្ហបុរីប៉ែកខាងជើង គឺជាប្រទេសមួយស្ថិតក្នុង ជម្រើសដំបូងគេ ។ ប្រទេសទាំងពីរមានភាពស្រដៀងគ្នាខ្លាំងណាស់ ហើយកន្លងមកសឹង្ហបុរីក៏ជាផ្នែកមួយនៃ ប្រទេសម៉ាឡេស៊ីរហូតមកដល់ឆ្នាំ១៩៦៥ ទើបផ្តាច់ខ្លួនចេញ ។ នៅក្នុងបរិបទនៃការអភិវឌ្ឍសេដ្ឋកិច្ច សឹង្ហបុរី ដែលផ្តាច់ខ្លួនចេញពីម៉ាឡេស៊ីក៏នៅតែបែងចែកនូវផលប្រយោជន៍ទាំងឡាយជាមួយគ្នាដែរ ។ ស្ថិតនៅលើទី តាំងភូមិសាស្ត្រអនុគ្រោះ ព្រំដែនទាំងអស់នៃប្រទេសម៉ាឡេស៊ីស្ទើរតែហ៊ុំព័ទ្ធទាំងស្រុងដោយច្រកសមុទ្រម៉ាឡា កា ។ វាផ្តល់នូវសក្តានុពលដូចគ្នាទៅនឹងសឹង្ហបុរីដែរ គឺម៉ាឡេស៊ីបានក្លាយជាមជ្ឈមណ្ឌលសម្រាប់នាវាចរណ៍ និងពាណិជ្ជកម្ម ។ ប្រទេសម៉ាឡេស៊ីក៏បង្ករភាពងាយស្រួលសម្រាប់វិនិយោគិនបរទេស ។ ជាប្រទេសមួយក្នុង ចំណោមប្រទេសតិចតួចបំផុតនៅអាស៊ី ដែលជនបរទេសអាចទិញដីបាន ។ អ្វីដែលត្រូវដោះស្រាយ គឺការលប់ បំបាត់អំពើពុករលួយ និងបង្កើនប្រសិទ្ធភាពដឹកនាំរបស់រដ្ឋាភិបាល ។ នៅមានបញ្ហាញាំញីខ្លះទៀត គឺប្រទេស នេះមានជនជាតិ និងសាសនាច្រើនចំរុះគ្នាបើធៀបទៅនឹងសឹង្ហបុរី ។
ប្រទេសម៉ាឡេស៊ី ស្ថិតនៅភូមិភាគអាស៊ីអាគ្នេយ៍ ដោយមានព្រំប្រទល់ជាប់នឹងប្រទេសថៃ សឹង្ហបុរី វៀតណាម និងប្រទេសឥណ្ឌូនេស៊ី មានផ្ទៃដីសរុប ៣៣០.៨០៣គីឡូម៉ែត្រការ៉េ មានប្រជាជនសរុបចំនួន ៣១.៦១៨.០០០នាក់ (តួលេខឆ្នាំ២០១៧) ។

Kuala-Lumpur-City-Centre-MLNB-Hero-Shot1000

២- ព្រះរាជាណាចក្រកម្ពុជាៈ កម្ពុជាជាប្រទេសមួយដែលក្រីក្រជាងគេនៅក្នុងអាស៊ី ។ ប្រទេសនេះស្ថិត នៅក្នុងចម្ងាយឆ្ងាយ ដើម្បីក្លាយទៅជាសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់ ។ ប៉ុន្តែកំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចលឿនខ្ពស់ និងនយោបាយទាក់ ទាញរស់រវើករបស់រាជរដ្ឋាភិបាលចំពោះវិនិយោគិនបរទេសពិតជាផ្តល់សារៈសំខាន់សម្រាប់ប្រជាជាតិមួយនេះ។ កំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុជាត្រូវបានអ្នកវិភាគប៉ាន់ស្មានថា មានអត្រា៧%ថេរតទៅមុខទៀត ។ ជាមួយគ្នានេះ ជន បរទេសទទួលបាននូវភាពងាយស្រួលក្នុងការប្រកបរបរជំនួញ និងការទិញលក់អចលនទ្រព្យ ។ មិនត្រឹមតែ ប៉ុណ្ណឹងទេ ប្រទេសចិនក៏ជាកម្លាំងជួយទ្រទ្រង់កំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចរបស់កម្ពុជាដែរ ។ ប្រទេសទាំងពីរជាសម្ព័ន្ធ មិត្តនឹងគ្នា ។ ប្រទេសចិនតែងតែបានជួយជាជំនួយហិរញ្ញវត្ថុសម្រាប់ការកសាងផ្លូវថ្នល់ ស្ពាន និងជំនួយដទៃទៀត ។ GDP របស់ចិនមានទំហំ ៥៦០ដង ធំជាង GDP កម្ពុជា ។ ប្រទេសកម្ពុជាមានច្រកចេញចូលទៅកាន់ សមុទ្រ និងមានផ្លូវសម្រាប់ធ្វើលំហូរពាណិជ្ជកម្ម ក៏ដូចជាការរីកចម្រើននៃវិស័យទេសចរណ៍ដែលកំពុងមាន សន្ទុះខ្លាំង ។ នៅមានបញ្ហាប្រឈមខ្លះ ប៉ុន្តែរាជរដ្ឋាភិបាលកម្ពុជាបានធ្វើឲ្យមានការរីកចម្រើនទៅមុខកាន់តែ ច្រើនណាស់ហើយក្នុងការដោះស្រាយបញ្ហាប្រឈមទាំងនេះ ។
ប្រទេសកម្ពុជាមានផ្ទៃដីសរុប ១៨១.០៣៥គីឡូម៉ែត្រការ៉េ មានប្រជាជនសរុប ១៥.៩៥៧.២២៣នាក់ គិតត្រឹមខែកក្កដា ឆ្នាំ២០១៦ ។

3b84ada8-cb0d-4745-b495-b91ffd28126c

៣- ហ្សកហ្ស៊ីៈ សាធារណរដ្ឋហ្សកហ្ស៊ី គឺជាប្រទេសមួយនៅក្នុងតំបន់អាស៊ីខាងលិច មានព្រំប្រទល់ ជាប់នឹងប្រទេសរុស្សី និងតួកគី ប៉ុន្តែមិនមែនសហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកទេ ។ អ្នកខ្លះពិតជាមិនបានចាប់អារម្មណ៍ជាមួយ ហ្សកហ្ស៊ី ប៉ុន្តែប្រទេសដែលគេមិនចាប់អារម្មណ៍មួយនេះកំពុងមានជាចំណុចខ្លាំងមួយហើយ ។ រដ្ឋាភិបាល ហ្សកហ្ស៊ីមានប្រសិទ្ធភាពការងារខ្ពស់ណាស់ រីឯធនាគារមានភាពងាយស្រួលក្នុងការធ្វើទំនាក់ទំនង ។ គេអាច ធ្វើទំនាក់ទំនងការងារជាមួយធនាគារមិនដល់រយៈពេលមួយថ្ងៃផង អាចនឹងសម្រេច ។ វិនិយោគិនបរទេស ដែលចង់ទិញអចលនទ្រព្យ ឬចាប់ផ្តើមបើកក្រុមហ៊ុនមិនចាំបាច់ប្រឈមនឹងលក្ខខណ្ឌលំបាកណាមួយទេ ។ ដោយសារតែភាពងាយស្រួលនេះហើយ ទើបធ្វើឲ្យវិស័យធនាគាររបស់ហ្សកហ្ស៊ីស្ថិតក្នុងលំដាប់ធនាគារដែល ងាយស្រួលទំនាក់ទំនងការងារជាងគេបំផុតក្នុងចំណោមធនាគារ ដែលងាយស្រួលដទៃទៀតនៅក្នុងពិភព លោក ដោយស្ថិតក្នុងលំដាប់ទី១៦ ក្នុងចំណោម១៩០ប្រទេស ។ កំពង់ផែដ៏ធំមួយកំពុងស្ថិតក្នុងការសាងសង់ រួមជាមួយនឹងបំពង់បង្ហូរប្រេងជាច្រើនចេញពីប្រទេសតួកគី ឆ្លងកាត់ហ្សកហ្ស៊ីឆ្ពោះទៅកាន់បណ្តាប្រទេសអឺរ៉ុប បានរួមចំណែកយ៉ាងខ្លាំងក្នុងការជំរុញល្បឿនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចហ្សកហ្ស៊ី ។ ប៉ុន្តែប្រទេសនេះក៏កំពុងមានបញ្ហាប្រឈម ដូចជាតំបន់ South Caucasus តាំងពីយូរយារណាស់មកហើយនៅតែមិនទាន់ស្ថិរភាព ។
ប្រទេសហ្សកហ្ស៊ីមានទីតាំងស្ថិតនៅតំបន់ Eurasia តាមបណ្តោយជួរភ្នំ South Caucasus នៅច្រក កណ្តាលនៃអាស៊ីប៉ែកខាងលិច និងអឺរ៉ុបប៉ែកខាងកើត និងស្ថិតនៅចន្លោះសមុទ្រខ្មៅ និងសមុទ្រ Caspian ។ ប្រទេសនេះមានផ្ទៃដី ៦៩.៧០០គីឡូម៉ែត្រការ៉េ និងមានប្រជាជនសរុប ៣.៧២០.៤០០នាក់ (តួលេខឆ្នាំ ២០១៦)។

Tbilisi-Georgia_2420311b

៤- ប៉ាណាម៉ាៈ ភូមិសាស្ត្រដ៏ល្អអស្ចារ្យរបស់ប៉ាណាម៉ា គឺទីតាំងនៃប្រទេសនេះស្ថិតនៅភ្ជាប់រវាងឧបទ្វីប អាមេរិកទាំងពីរជាមួយគ្នា ។ ប្រជាជាតិអាមេរិកកណ្តាលមួយនេះមានភ័ព្វសំណាងខ្លាំងណាស់ ដោយសារតែ កត្តាទីតាំងភូមិសាស្ត្រអំណោយផល ពិសេសគឺព្រែកជីករបស់ខ្លួន ។ ប្រសិនបើគ្មានព្រែកជីកប៉ាណាម៉ាទេ រាល់ នាវាដឹកទំនិញធំៗទាំងអស់ត្រូវតែធ្វើដំណើរតាមផ្លូវវាងទៅប៉ែកខាងលើនៃតំបន់អាមេរិកខាងត្បូង ដើម្បីទៅ កាន់គោលដៅដទៃទៀត ។ ព្រែកជីកនេះអាចជួយកាត់បន្ថយបានពេលវេលានៃការធ្វើនាវាចរណ៍ប្រមាណ២ អាទិត្យឯណោះ ហើយក៏អាចធ្វើឲ្យកាត់បន្ថយបានការខាតបង់ប្រាក់រាប់ពាន់លានដុល្លារក្នុងមួយឆ្នាំៗ ។ ប៉ាណា ម៉ាស្ថិតក្នុងទីតាំងមួយនៃបញ្ជីឈ្មោះដែលសកម្មបំផុតក្នុងគោលដៅឆ្ពោះទៅកាន់ឋានៈជាសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់ ។ ប្រធា នាធិបតីប៉ាណាម៉ា២រូបរួចមកហើយបានធ្វើដំណើរទស្សនកិច្ចផ្លូវរដ្ឋទៅកាន់សឹង្ហបុរី ដើម្បីសិក្សារៀនសូត្រនូវ ជោគជ័យរបស់ប្រទេសនេះ ។ នៅពេលដែលប៉ាណាម៉ាស្ថិតក្នុងបែបផែនស្តង់ដារជាប្រទេសអាមេរិកឡាទីន ប៉ុន្តែបញ្ហាការិយាធិបតេយ្យនៅមានការលំបាកច្រើនបើធៀបទៅនឹងសឹង្ហបុរី ។ ការចាត់ចែងរបរជំនួញក៏ដូច ជាការទំនាក់ទំនងជាមួយរដ្ឋាភិបាលមានការលំបាកខ្លាំង ។ អត្រាពន្ធសាជីវកម្មមានរហូតដល់ទៅ២៥% គឺ ខ្ពស់ជាង បើធៀបទៅនឹងប្រទេសដទៃទៀតដែលត្រូវក្លាយជាសឹង្ហបុរីបន្ទាប់ ។ តើប៉ាណាម៉ាអាចប្រយុទ្ធនឹង អំពើពុករលួយ ការបញ្ចុះអត្រាពន្ធ ការបង្កើនប្រសិទ្ធភាពការងារ ការធ្វើឲ្យប្រសើរឡើងនូវកិត្តិស័ព្វរបស់ធនា គារបានទេ? ដោះស្រាយបានបញ្ហាបានទាំងអស់នេះ ប្រទេសប៉ាណាម៉ានឹងទទួលបានជោគជ័យយ៉ាងពិតប្រាកដ។

ប្រទេសប៉ាណាម៉ា មាននាមជាផ្លូវការថា សាធារណៈរដ្ឋប៉ាណាម៉ា ស្ថិតនៅអាមេរិកកណ្តាល ខាងលិច ទល់នឹងប្រទេសកូស្តារីកា ខាងកើតឈៀងខាងត្បូង ទល់នឹងប្រទេសកូឡំប៊ី ខាងជើងទល់នឹងសមុទ្រខារីបៀន និងខាងត្បូងទល់មហាសមុទ្រប៉ាស៊ីហ្វិក ។ ប្រទេសនេះមានផ្ទៃដី ៧៤.១៧៧,៣គីឡូម៉ែត្រការ៉េ មានប្រជាជន ចំនួន ៤.០៥៣.៣៧៤ (តួលេខខែវិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ២០១៦) ៕ (តាមឯកសារបរទេស)

Panama-City-23

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